tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 15:13, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:13 → IAH 17:03UA 2456 2h 58m Houston IAH 20:01 → SNA 21:31UA 326 9h 18m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 1h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 7h 56m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:31 → IAD 14:56UA 1757 2h 54m Dulles IAD 17:50 → SNA 20:40UA 2319 11h 09m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 52m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 9h 56m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:22 → MSP 14:56DL 1730 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 10h 58m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:24 → DFW 10:24AA 2961 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 8h 18m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 26m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:41 → ATL 17:17DL 1576 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 44m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON