tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2809 Southwest MCO 10:31 SRQ 11:36 22% 5% 6.6% no record
WN 597 Southwest MCO 20:56 SRQ 22:01 28% 8% 3.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 22m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:26 → BWI 11:55WN 2693 1h 30m Baltimore BWI 13:25 → SRQ 16:06WN 1167 6h 40m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 4h 43m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 6h 32m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 1h 48m New York LGA 11:29 → SRQ 13:53DL 2412 6h 53m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:41 → ATL 17:17DL 1576 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 6h 46m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCO 13:05 → ATL 14:44DL 664 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109 6h 52m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647 1h 36m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452 5h 22m 95% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:46DL 1150 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 4h 42m 71% 53%
AmericanDetails → MCO 20:25 → MIA 21:46AA 1642 1h 08m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 3h 34m 69% 53%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 50m Atlanta ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109 4h 17m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON