Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 382 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 382 MCO 06:00 → STL 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2815 MCO 18:16 → STL 20:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 382 Southwest	MCO 06:00	STL 07:32	4%	1%	6.0%	no record
WN 2812 Southwest	MCO 07:41	STL 09:35	6%	1%	8.6%	no record
WN 2813 Southwest	MCO 11:26	STL 13:10	15%	3%	7.0%	no record
WN 474 Southwest	MCO 15:51	STL 17:35	19%	4%	4.7%	no record
WN 4071 Southwest	MCO 19:31	STL 21:15	19%	5%	2.0%	no record
WN 5017 Southwest	MCO 17:00	STL 18:33	21%	5%	4.4%	no record
WN 2815 Southwest	MCO 18:16	STL 20:00	22%	5%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON