Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4810 at 11:06, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4810 Southwest	MCO 11:06	STT 14:12	20%	5%	4.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	9h 22m	100%	73%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 17m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	8h 43m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	8h 19m	98%	69%
American Details →	MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12AA 2894	2h 53m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 01m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON