tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1764 at 15:31, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1764 Southwest MCO 15:31 TUL 17:36 26% 6% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620 5h 59m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 12:32 → TUL 14:12AA 2657 8h 10m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → TUL 10:16DL 2754 5h 46m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:38 → TUL 16:27UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 17m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:50 → ORD 19:04AA 1782 3h 26m Chicago ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 8h 41m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 7h 39m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:17 → DEN 19:45UA 1770 1h 10m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 86% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:38 → DFW 17:35AA 1737 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:48AA 531 5h 10m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON