Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2346 at 14:56, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2346 Southwest	MCO 14:56	TYS 16:55	21%	5%	7.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 12:28 → DTW 15:18DL 1455	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → TYS 19:38DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	7h 10m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573	1h 13m New York	LGA 10:54 → TYS 12:52DL 4983 · flown by Endeavor	5h 52m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148	5h 41m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:43DL 1213	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → TYS 16:53DL 2571	5h 48m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817	5h 19m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29DL 1437	6h 49m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 19:14 → TYS 20:17DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	95%	70%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:16 → TYS 14:37AA 2544	7h 07m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 08:24 → DFW 10:24AA 2961	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:16 → TYS 14:37AA 2544	6h 13m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON