Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4714 at 07:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4714 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 07:00	BOS 08:31	6%	2%	0.7%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MDT 06:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6013 · flown by Piedmont	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MDT 06:36 → ATL 08:35DL 1255	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	7h 11m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDT 06:15 → DTW 07:52DL 4787 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 11:59DL 2648	5h 44m	98%	85%
American Details →	MDT 10:36 → PHL 11:34AA 5829 · flown by Piedmont	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 12:54 → BOS 14:33AA 3186	3h 57m	100%	85%
United Details →	MDT 06:15 → IAD 07:13UA 4244 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	4h 05m	93%	84%
American Details →	MDT 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5833 · flown by Piedmont	2h 03m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → BOS 12:50AA 2263	6h 19m	97%	83%
American Details →	MDT 05:00 → CLT 06:44AA 6100 · flown by Piedmont	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 08:36 → BOS 10:53AA 1151	5h 53m	94%	82%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → BOS 14:02UA 1606	7h 32m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON