Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 977 at 07:05, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 977 American Flight history →	MDT 07:05	DFW 09:31	14%	4%	1.3%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Harrisburg). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:36 → ATL 08:35DL 1255	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	7h 01m	98%	79%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:13UA 441	7h 43m	98%	78%
American Details →	MDT 06:02 → CLT 07:49AA 6070 · flown by Piedmont	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 09:12 → DFW 10:58AA 575	5h 56m	95%	76%
American Details →	MDT 08:33 → PHL 09:38AA 6056 · flown by Piedmont	3h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	7h 58m	98%	76%
American Details →	MDT 08:00 → CLT 09:45AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	6h 02m	98%	75%
American Details →	MDT 09:38 → CLT 11:22AA 5638 · flown by PSA	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 13:07 → DFW 14:49AA 1690	6h 11m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	MDT 12:30 → ATL 14:29DL 1248	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827	7h 27m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818	6h 37m	96%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON