Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, G7 4591 at 14:51, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G7 4591 GoJet	MDT 14:51	IAD 16:04	16%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:36 → ATL 08:35DL 1255	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 50m	99%	89%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 11:06 → IAD 14:05UA 1486	7h 35m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 19m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MDT 12:30 → ATL 14:29DL 1248	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	4h 44m	85%	69%
American Details →	MDT 07:05 → DFW 09:31AA 977	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:17 → IAD 14:26AA 524	7h 21m	78%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON