Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 739 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 739 MDT 05:59 → ORD 07:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3243 MDT 19:15 → ORD 20:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 739 American	MDT 05:59	ORD 07:07	11%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	11%	4%	1.0%	85%
YX 3463 Republic	MDT 14:00	ORD 15:17	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:34	ORD 11:44	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	MDT 12:32	ORD 13:36	23%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:46	ORD 18:51	27%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:15	ORD 20:42	31%	7%	1.4%	62%
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON