Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4432 at 11:19, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4432 Southwest	MDW 11:19	ABQ 13:40	10%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → ABQ 16:54DL 730	8h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 17:46 → ABQ 19:05DL 8790	8h 41m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531	6h 40m	91%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON