Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3657 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3657 Southwest	MDW 08:09	ALB 11:26	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1101 Southwest	MDW 16:19	ALB 19:26	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ALB 13:28DL 1137	6h 28m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 18:39 → DTW 20:51DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	54m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → ALB 23:21DL 2660	3h 42m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:28 → ATL 19:25DL 1728	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:38 → ALB 23:59DL 2584	6h 31m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON