Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1285 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1285 MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2827 MDW 16:14 → ATL 19:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1285 Delta Flight history →	MDW 06:00	ATL 08:57	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 3549 Southwest	MDW 08:09	ATL 11:08	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	MDW 11:24	ATL 14:21	10%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 2509 Southwest	MDW 11:34	ATL 14:33	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 2292 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 06:05	ATL 09:22	15%	5%	1.0%	71%
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	MDW 16:22	ATL 19:22	16%	5%	1.6%	74%
WN 2827 Southwest	MDW 16:14	ATL 19:13	20%	5%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON