Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 440 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 440 Southwest	MDW 07:50	BDL 10:54	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3284 Southwest	MDW 16:14	BDL 19:29	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	6h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → BDL 15:14DL 2739	8h 14m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BDL 18:50DL 2735	6h 26m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	6h 32m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON