Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 130 at 10:29, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 130 Southwest	MDW 10:29	BHM 12:21	8%	2%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → BHM 15:52DL 2484	4h 28m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → BHM 22:34DL 2034	6h 12m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 16:39 → BHM 17:43DL 3062	4h 17m	79%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON