Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3556 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3556 Southwest	MDW 07:59	BUF 10:41	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 165 Southwest	MDW 16:19	BUF 19:01	14%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → BUF 15:48DL 1749	4h 54m	89%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → BUF 23:42DL 2334	6h 20m	95%	72%
Frontier Details →	MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:52 → BUF 13:09F9 1408	6h 04m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON