Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3671 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3671 Southwest	MDW 08:04	CLT 10:59	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3106 Southwest	MDW 16:14	CLT 19:09	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 31m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:54 → CLT 16:48DL 1429	6h 31m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 36m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819	5h 33m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	6h 00m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON