tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1303 Southwest MDW 08:14 CVG 10:35 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1017 Southwest MDW 16:19 CVG 18:40 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149 5h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858 6h 39m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 7h 17m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 2h 25m Detroit DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor 4h 59m 96% 80%
FrontierDetails → MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292 54m Atlanta ATL 10:16 → CVG 11:48F9 4771 4h 43m 81% 63%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 2h 56m Detroit DTW 18:40 → CVG 19:58DL 5215 · flown by Endeavor 5h 32m 94% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 16:32 → CVG 17:49DL 5060 · flown by Endeavor 3h 23m 73% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON