Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2869 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2869 MDW 05:36 → DCA 08:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4305 MDW 18:14 → DCA 21:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2869 Southwest	MDW 05:36	DCA 08:27	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4847 Southwest	MDW 08:09	DCA 11:09	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 439 Southwest	MDW 11:09	DCA 14:09	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2873 Southwest	MDW 15:44	DCA 18:39	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4305 Southwest	MDW 18:14	DCA 21:14	15%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON