Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, F9 2999 at 12:59, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 2999 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 12:59	DFW 15:40	15%	8%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	6h 37m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:13 → DFW 17:32DL 374	6h 08m	97%	73%
Frontier Details →	MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → DFW 12:25F9 1269	6h 20m	92%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 12:35 → DFW 14:18DL 1041	5h 01m	84%	68%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818	7h 37m	98%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON