Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2926 at 10:39 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2926 Southwest	MDW 10:39	DSM 12:10	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1009 Southwest	MDW 19:24	DSM 20:55	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:58 → MSP 11:36DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:04DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	4h 06m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:28 → ATL 19:25DL 1728	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	6h 01m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON