Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2742 MDW 08:49 → DTW 11:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2392 MDW 16:09 → DTW 18:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2742 Southwest	MDW 08:49	DTW 11:07	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
9E 5305 Endeavor	MDW 09:18	DTW 11:28	5%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 4688 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MDW 13:18	DTW 15:42	6%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 4690 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MDW 18:39	DTW 20:51	8%	4%	1.1%	57%
WN 2392 Southwest	MDW 16:09	DTW 18:22	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON