Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 21m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866	5h 59m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 14:12 → EWR 15:49DL 2573	5h 32m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	6h 24m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 30m	92%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON