Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1944 Southwest	MDW 10:24	GRR 12:31	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4572 Southwest	MDW 18:59	GRR 21:01	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:07 → GRR 15:36DL 1245	4h 42m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → GRR 12:21DL 2547	5h 21m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → GRR 18:58DL 2058	6h 34m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → GRR 23:17DL 2865	5h 55m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON