Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 33m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	7h 46m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 35m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223	5h 15m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	54m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → IAH 14:30DL 1307	5h 13m	83%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON