Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 787 Southwest	MDW 10:24	IND 12:34	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2949 Southwest	MDW 19:09	IND 21:14	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	4h 39m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979	6h 03m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → IND 00:20 +1DL 2657	6h 58m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 17:42 → IND 19:00DL 5034 · flown by Endeavor	4h 34m	90%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON