tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398 7h 39m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 6h 06m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 2h 19m Detroit DTW 18:03 → JFK 20:04DL 1316 5h 38m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 7h 24m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor 7h 20m 89% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON