Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2898 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2898 MDW 06:11 → LAS 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 212 MDW 16:04 → LAS 18:09 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2898 Southwest	MDW 06:11	LAS 07:59	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3426 Southwest	MDW 00:28	LAS 02:23	14%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2385 Southwest	MDW 12:14	LAS 14:19	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2900 Southwest	MDW 10:22	LAS 12:15	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2901 Southwest	MDW 19:09	LAS 21:09	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 212 Southwest	MDW 16:04	LAS 18:09	29%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON