Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 196 at 10:34 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 196 Southwest	MDW 10:34	LAX 13:12	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 969 Southwest	MDW 19:44	LAX 22:22	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	7h 05m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 12m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	10h 06m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852	8h 38m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122	8h 16m	89%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 18m	85%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575	10h 08m	98%	72%
Frontier Details →	MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292	49m Atlanta	ATL 10:11 → LAX 12:05F9 4315	8h 00m	77%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON