Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2919 at 04:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2919 MDW 04:57 → MCO 08:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2923 MDW 17:11 → MCO 20:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2919 Southwest	MDW 04:57	MCO 08:26	7%	1%	4.7%	no record
WN 3798 Southwest	MDW 08:09	MCO 11:51	8%	2%	5.3%	no record
WN 3650 Southwest	MDW 09:39	MCO 13:31	8%	2%	4.7%	no record
WN 2235 Southwest	MDW 11:34	MCO 15:16	12%	3%	1.6%	no record
WN 1888 Southwest	MDW 13:49	MCO 17:31	14%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 799 Southwest	MDW 18:59	MCO 22:41	16%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 2923 Southwest	MDW 17:11	MCO 20:45	19%	5%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON