Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1673 Southwest	MDW 10:59	MEM 12:45	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4506 Southwest	MDW 19:29	MEM 21:15	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:18 → DTW 15:42DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Detroit	DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049	5h 37m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	5h 32m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:28 → ATL 19:25DL 1728	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → MEM 23:12DL 2501	6h 44m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON