Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 198 at 12:09, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 198 Southwest	MDW 12:09	MIA 16:29	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187	8h 37m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 07m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 14:24 → MIA 17:34DL 2548	7h 17m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 33m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719	7h 20m	99%	67%
Frontier Details →	MDW 12:59 → DFW 15:40F9 2999	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:20 → MIA 22:34F9 2676	8h 35m	95%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON