tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1895 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1895 Southwest MDW 10:24 MKE 11:20 7% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3238 Southwest MDW 19:14 MKE 20:10 21% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:43 → MKE 15:02DL 2006 5h 08m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151 5h 51m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206 5h 35m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 22:39 → MKE 23:43DL 1268 7h 21m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 50m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MKE 12:42DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 3h 27m 82% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON