Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3493 MDW 10:57 → MSP 12:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4408 MDW 18:59 → MSP 20:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3493 Southwest	MDW 10:57	MSP 12:26	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2935 Southwest	MDW 15:49	MSP 17:25	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4408 Southwest	MDW 18:59	MSP 20:30	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5469 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:54	MSP 11:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:49	MSP 15:33	32%	19%	3.6%	68%
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON