Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2941 Southwest	MDW 10:29	OKC 12:46	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3554 Southwest	MDW 18:53	OKC 21:05	15%	7%	2.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490	5h 08m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	7h 30m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	7h 52m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON