Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3744 at 18:59, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3744 Southwest	MDW 18:59	ONT 21:30	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	9h 06m	99%	74%
Frontier Details →	MDW 12:59 → DFW 15:40F9 2999	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:51 → ONT 18:19F9 4689	7h 20m	87%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON