Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4459 Southwest	MDW 08:04	ORF 11:16	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4710 Southwest	MDW 16:09	ORF 19:21	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 06m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	7h 15m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:28 → ATL 19:25DL 1728	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:32 → ORF 00:19 +1DL 2338	6h 51m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 18:39 → DTW 20:51DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	3h 53m	91%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON