Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 184 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 184 MDW 05:04 → PHX 06:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2960 MDW 19:24 → PHX 21:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 184 Southwest	MDW 05:04	PHX 06:40	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3686 Southwest	MDW 09:04	PHX 10:58	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3803 Southwest	MDW 00:27	PHX 02:21	9%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 265 Southwest	MDW 11:04	PHX 12:58	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2959 Southwest	MDW 15:29	PHX 17:23	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2960 Southwest	MDW 19:24	PHX 21:18	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON