Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2824 Southwest	MDW 08:04	PIT 10:35	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3409 Southwest	MDW 16:09	PIT 18:40	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 52m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122	6h 21m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → PIT 00:22 +1DL 1351	7h 00m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → PIT 15:40DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor	5h 23m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:07 → PIT 16:23DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor	5h 29m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → PIT 00:07 +1DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor	4h 08m	73%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON