Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2970 Southwest	MDW 08:19	RDU 11:31	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3297 Southwest	MDW 16:19	RDU 19:26	15%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 42m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	7h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → RDU 16:08DL 1407	5h 51m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	6h 51m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:41 +1DL 2938	7h 19m	98%	80%
Frontier Details →	MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:14 → RDU 12:54F9 1168	5h 49m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON