Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2463 at 08:19, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2463 Southwest	MDW 08:19	RIC 11:24	4%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:58 → MSP 11:36DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → RIC 19:21DL 5530 · flown by Endeavor	8h 23m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → RIC 19:35DL 1348	7h 11m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:28 → ATL 19:25DL 1728	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → RIC 00:17 +1DL 1175	6h 49m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON