Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1496 Southwest	MDW 11:34	SAT 14:30	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2982 Southwest	MDW 18:19	SAT 21:15	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	7h 38m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465	7h 05m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773	7h 37m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SAT 23:21DL 1508	6h 59m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON