Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3693 at 08:09, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3693 Southwest	MDW 08:09	SAV 11:24	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SAV 18:59DL 527	6h 35m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	50m Atlanta	ATL 09:47 → SAV 10:54DL 3054	3h 54m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → SAV 16:28DL 2574	5h 34m	89%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → SAV 23:53DL 2860	6h 31m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON