tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1910 Southwest MDW 08:04 SDF 10:30 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 139 Southwest MDW 16:14 SDF 18:35 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481 5h 31m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831 6h 49m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 22:50 → SDF 00:14 +1DL 2624 6h 52m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 12:42 → SDF 15:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 4h 45m 89% 79%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 3h 43m Detroit DTW 15:18 → SDF 16:46DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor 6h 29m 98% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON