Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4367 at 11:04 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4367 Southwest	MDW 11:04	SFO 13:50	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4327 Southwest	MDW 19:04	SFO 21:55	37%	12%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SFO 16:25DL 756	8h 31m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656	9h 35m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	9h 08m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	8h 07m	92%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON