Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2483 Southwest	MDW 12:49	SJC 15:26	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1281 Southwest	MDW 19:09	SJC 21:56	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087	9h 40m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	46m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	7h 30m	90%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON