Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2489 at 17:49, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2489 Southwest	MDW 17:49	SLC 20:24	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → SLC 16:21DL 2658	7h 27m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 10m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	9h 32m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	7h 17m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	9h 04m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 56m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	7h 08m	89%	73%
Frontier Details →	MDW 12:59 → DFW 15:40F9 2999	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:27 → SLC 18:28F9 3277	6h 29m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON