Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012	9h 36m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	8h 03m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107	8h 31m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON