Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2995 at 08:14, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2995 Southwest	MDW 08:14	SRQ 12:06	9%	2%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104	4h 48m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109	7h 33m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:28 → ATL 19:25DL 1728	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997	4h 59m	90%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON