Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 806 Southwest	MDW 11:24	STL 12:45	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 670 Southwest	MDW 19:09	STL 20:30	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224	6h 56m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 14:33 → STL 15:17DL 1371	6h 00m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	6h 30m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:24 → ATL 14:21DL 2417	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	5h 15m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 16:22 → ATL 19:22DL 1728	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403	6h 58m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON